Are you wondering whether you should buy now or wait? No doubt the market has changed, and with change comes uncertainty. Wondering what’s going to happen with interest rates? Are you waiting for the bottom of the market? What I would say to you is that there is no way to time the market. The best time for you to buy a house is when it’s right for you.
The Market Matters, but Your Life Matters More
It’s not about timing the market, but timing your life. Here are some factors that are more important than market timing:
- Job stability
- Family Changes (downsizing, debt, divorce, death, and diapers)
- Financially secure
- Long-term move (at least 5 years)
Buyers Market vs Sellers Market
Is it a buyer’s market? What does that mean? If you’re looking to buy a house in a buyer’s market, you can expect to see more inventory and less competition, which will give you more negotiating power. In a seller’s market, there will be less inventory, multiple offers on listings, and increasing prices.
Other criteria to understand when determining if you’re in a buyer’s or seller’s market are:
- Months of inventory
- Days on market
- Price reductions
You might be hearing that the Toronto real estate market is in a buyer’s market. My caution with this generalization is that you have to break down which specific neighbourhoods, property types, and price points to understand where buyer’s markets, balanced markets, and seller’s markets exist.
Markets are constantly shifting, whether you’re in a buyer’s or seller’s market. Don’t wait for headlines to tell you what to do. Work with an agent who understands the market, and use data to decide when it’s a good time for you to buy a house.
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The Hidden Advantage of Buying When Others Are Hesitating
When fear and uncertainty are high, fewer people will buy homes. There might be the kind of opportunity you’re looking for because there’s less competition. Imagine buying a house in Toronto where you can be patient and submit an offer with conditions. You might even negotiate the price down instead of bidding it up.
Perks of Buying in an Uncertain Market
Some of the best deals I have helped clients with have been during uncertain times. In 2008, I helped a family move from a condo to a house in Leaside. At the time, the economy was uncertain. My clients were secure in their employment, and life was happening. It was time for them to move. They wondered if the time was right, too.
One of my first questions to them was, “Why do you want to move?” My follow-up question was, “How long do you plan to stay?” They planned to raise their family in the home until they finished school. Because they had a long-term plan in place, timing the market made no sense. What was more important was that the perfect house became available, and we were able to negotiate a fantastic deal.
I recently helped a client purchase their ideal home in their preferred school district in Whitby. For years, they wanted to move up from their townhouse to a larger, fully detached home. In 2021, we started discussing their move up, but with the market rapidly rising, the gap from what they owned to what they wanted was too big, $500,000. As much as their townhouse went up in value, detached houses went up in price by much more, so plans were put on hold.
Turn the clocks forward to 2025: prices had declined over the last 3 years, but this time detached homes decreased far more than my client’s townhouse did. With interest rates declining and the gap to a detached house becoming attainable, $290,000, my clients moved to Whitby.
When there’s lots of confidence, competition returns. So is it a good time to buy a home? Sometimes the answer is yes, because others think it’s not.
Interest Rates: Should You Buy Now or Wait?
In my opinion, as long as you qualify for the financing, whatever the rate, and as long as it’s affordable, buying when the house price is right for you is more important than waiting for rates. Interest rates are unpredictable; nobody has a crystal ball. The rate is temporary, and you will go through cycles of renewing mortgages, where the interest rate changes each time you renew, but you only get one opportunity to negotiate the price when making a home purchase.
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Timing the Market or Timing the Calendar
Traditionally, most people believe the springtime is the best time to buy real estate in Toronto. It’s usually when we see more property for sale, but I often see great opportunities in the winter, summer, and fall. It might require more patience because there’s less inventory, but there’s also less competition from buyers looking (think supply & demand).
Common mistakes I see buyers make when trying to time the market:
- Trying to buy at the bottom of the market
- Waiting for certainty
- Following headlines instead of the data
I once helped a buyer purchase a condo on Christmas Day. The condo reduced its price by $50,000, we submitted an offer on Christmas Day, and the seller accepted it right away.
Remember, real estate is a long-term decision, not a short-term trade. It’s much easier to time the calendar than the market.
The 5 Signs You’re Ready to Buy (No Matter the Market)
Are you asking, “Should I buy a house right now”? If so, here’s your checklist:
- You’re financially prepared: stable income, savings, and mortgage preapproval
- You plan to stay in the home for at least 5 years
- You’re tired of waiting and watching
- You know your numbers
- You have a strategy; you’re working with a professional and have a plan
If you’re thinking about buying and wondering if now is the right time, I’m always happy to discuss your situation, no pressure, just clarity.
Buying a home? I can help! Give me a call at 647.283.2127 or email stuart@stuartnodell.com to get in touch.
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